BY MIKE PRATER
@KTIK.COM
It’s easy to show up in Las Vegas with a smile on your face. Even a businesslike coach such as Boise State’s Bryan Harsin doesn’t mind sharing a smile with a Vegas showgirl. But, as most of us know, the hard part is leaving Sin City with the same attitude, and that’s exactly what the Broncos are trying to do this week. Here’s how No. 25 Boise State (10-3) can beat the Oregon Ducks (7-5) in the Las Vegas Bowl (1:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC, 93.1 FM The Ticket and KBOI 670 AM):
Reason No. 1: Rush defense. Oregon star running back Royce Freeman will not play in this game as the senior focuses on an NFL career. Oregon can respond with strong backups, as the Ducks have a ground game that ranks eighth in FBS (268 yards per game). Fortunately for Boise State, that’s strength on strength: The Broncos’ rush defense is 20th in FBS (125.8 per game). Boise State’s defense dominated the best running back it saw this season, holding San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny to 53 yards and one TD on 21 carries (he averaged 169 yards a game for the season). If defensive coordinator Andy Avalos & Co. can dial up that same game plan, Boise State will benefit, especially with Freeman on the sidelines.
Reason No. 2: Win the turnover battle. Boise State is ninth in FBS turnover margin (+12) and Oregon is 60th (+1). Both are ranked 26th in turnovers gained, so the big difference is turnovers lost. Boise State has lost five fumbles (Oregon has lost 11), and the Broncos have thrown five interceptions (Oregon has thrown 10). The numbers are a bit skewed because backup quarterbacks threw for seven of the Ducks’ 10 interceptions, and they aren’t expected to play in this game. Regardless, Boise State can’t win without winning the turnover battle, like it has most of the season.
Reason No. 3: Brett Rypien must play well, especially in the 4Q. Boise State’s junior quarterback has had mixed results against Power 5 teams, and in bowl games. In six career games against P5 opponents, he’s completed 60.4 percent of his passes for an average of 250.2 yards, with six TDs, six interceptions and 13 sacks. In two bowl games, he’s hit 74.3 percent of his passes for an average of 341 yards a game, four TDs, three interceptions and six sacks. In two games against P5 teams this season, Rypien didn’t throw a TD and was picked off once. Overall, he’s 3-3 against P5 (on a three-game losing streak) and 1-1 in bowl games (on a one-game losing streak), so the consistency doesn’t exist. The production isn’t always there in P5 games. If Rypien plays well, and that starts with production from a questionable run game and up-front protection, the Broncos will have their best chance to win.
Photo courtesy of Las Vegas Bowl/ESPN Images
- HOW CAN OREGON DEFEAT BOISE STATE: Click here.
Mike Prater, editor of The Opinionator, co-hosts Idaho Sports Talk with Caves & Prater weekdays from 3-6 p.m. on KTIK 93.1 FM The Ticket and can be heard on Bronco GameNight after BSU football games on KTIK 93.1 FM and KBOI 670 AM. He can be reached at [email protected], and found @CavesandPrater(Facebook) and @MikeFPrater (Twitter).
