The most important day left in the NBA season is the draft lottery. This is coming from the biggest fan of NBA basketball that there is. The playoffs will certainly be interesting, and the Finals will be compelling. But, the Championship only determines who the best team was in a given year. This year’s NBA Draft Lottery will determine who’s going to be great for years to come. Thanks to the teams involved and prospects available, lottery day is the most important NBA day this season.
Let’s consider the teams involved in the lottery. Here’s the bottom of the standings (W-L-%). And here’s a link to the lottery odds associated with it (lottery determines which teams select in the top 3).
8- Minnesota Timberwolves |
28 | 44 | .389 |
| 7- Sacramento Kings | 28 | 45 | .384 |
| 6 –New York Knicks | 27 | 46 | .370 |
| 5 –Orlando Magic | 27 | 46 | .370 |
| 4 –Philadelphia 76ers | 27 | 46 | .370 |
| 3 –Phoenix Suns | 22 | 52 | .297 |
| 2 –Los Angeles Lakers | 21 | 52 | .288 |
| 1 –Brooklyn Nets | 16 | 57 | .219 |
The Nets have the worst record, but their pick belongs to the Celtics (yay Mikhail Prokhorov). The Lakers have the 2nd worst record, even in the loss column with the 3rd worst Suns. The Lakers draft pick goes to the Sixers if it falls outside the top 3 (plus, they would also their 2019 1st round pick).
Meanwhile, Sixers, Magic, Knicks, Kings all have 45 or 46 losses (T-Wolves have 44). That creates a logjam for positioning 4-8 of the lottery. The Sixers lottery odds are boosted because they can swap their pick with the Kings if Sacramento has the better pick (yay Vlade Divac).
To recap, the traditional powers of the sport (Celtics, Lakers, Sixers) will have their direction shaped for better or worse based on the ping pong lottery.
Celtics – could have Ball, Fultz, or other
Lakers – could have Ball, Fultz, other, or none (44% of none, 53% if better than Suns)
Sixers – could have Ball, Fultz, other, Ball & other, Fultz & other, or 2 others
—
Basketball is a sport that lends itself to one player having a dramatic impact on a team’s success. This NCAA season has helped highlight how stacked the top 6 of this draft is, and how valuable the top 2 prospects are (Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball). Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Malik Monk, and De’Aaron Fox are also tantalizing players.
At stake, the Lakers could have their next star, or no 1st round pick 2 of the next 3 years. The Celtics could make the Finals, and add the best player available for next year. The Sixers could have 2 of the top 4 picks, or just the 7th pick in 6 player draft. The bottom of the standings are much more dramatic than the top.
