The baseball draft is by far the least publicized and maybe the biggest reason is that the players taken will spend several years in the minors before reaching the major leagues.  In the NFL and the NBA those players drafted will play the very next season and will be major contributors in the league.  For the second time in the history of the draft, that began in 1965 when the Kansas City A's chose Rick Monday, the same team will have the first pick in back to back years. The Houston Astros chose high school shortstop Carlos Correa last season.  Currently, he is in single-A, hitting .282.  

The only other time a team picked number one in consecutive seasons, the Washington Nationals made it count, tabbing Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper in 2009 and 2010. Both of the those guys have been all-stars and have had major impacts in leading the Nationals to the NL East crown last year.  It will be interesting to see if they go for a college talent that is closer to being ready or take another high schooler.  Names thrown around are University of San Diego thirdbaseman Kris Bryant, Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray, or Stanford pitcher Mark Appel.

The success rate of a top pick is not nearly as good as choosing in football and basketball. I've selected four drafts over the past 20 years to see what success teams had with their top choices. 

Let's start five years ago in 2008. Right now, this group should be establishing itself as major league players.  Only one has become a true all-star.  The Giants chose Buster Posey with the fifth pick and he's been an MVP.  The first pick was Tim Beckham.  He's still in the minors for Tampa Bay and is currently hitting .288.  Two others starting to establish themselves are Pedro Alvarez (#2/Pittsburgh) and Eric Hosmer (#3/Kansas City).  So far the first round hasn't paid off for most teams.

Going back 10 years, we should solid major leaguers in the prime of their career.  If I have to evaluate the picks, I'd say the 29th pick, Carlos Quentin, now with San Diego, may have been the most solid.  He's been an all-star a couple of times and has four 20+ home run seasons.  Other solid major leaguers included Richie Weeks (#2/Milwaukee), Nick Markakis (#7/Baltimore), and Chad Billingsley (#24/Los Angeles).  The top pick ten years ago was Delmon Young by Tampa Bay. He has been a decent major leaguer, playing eight years with four different clubs, amassing a .283 average.

Let's go back 15 years…most of these guys should either well along their career or retired.  Pat Burrell was chosen first by the Phillies.  He had a pretty good career…but certainly won't have his career confused with a Ken Griffey, Jr. (another number one pick).  Oakland picked Mark Mulder with the second pick, St. Louis took J.D. Drew number five and there wasn't a lot else picked in the first round of 1998 until you got to 20, where the Indians took C.C. Sabathia, and he is still going strong.

And finally let's go back 20 years.  Three players are still active.  Alex Rodriguez, who has been on the disabled list all year, went number one to Seattle.  The two others still playing are pitcher Chris Carpenter (now with St. Louis) and outfielder Torii Hunter (with Detroit now).  Trot Nixon, Billy Wagner, and Jason Veritek had long and very good careers.

I guess the point I wanted to make is you have just as much chance to get a major leaguer late in the draft as early.  Keith Hernandez was taken in the 42nd round by the Cardinals and became an MVP. Mike Piazza was taken late by the Dodgers basically as a favor to his godfather Tommy LaSorda and became an all-star.  Major League drafts can't be evaluated for at least five years…and then you better look at the entire list and not just the first round.

Good luck to everybody's favorite teams.  Rocky Mountain's Mason Smith expects to hear his name called early.  Fruitland's Joey Martarano should be chosen fairly early as well.  But he'll probably go lower since he has reiterated that he is going to play football at Boise State.  It all starts on Thursday.